Judge whether your POI is likely to hold, or the price will dive deeper to the bullish FVG below.
✅ 1. First Principle: In a bullish structure, discount FVGs have priority over higher-premium POIs
When you have:
- Sweep of a low ✔️
- Reversal BOS (market structure shift) ✔️
- Return to OB inside discount = POI
- BUT an unmitigated bullish FVG exists even deeper in discount 👀
Then the question becomes:
Which inefficiency has greater “magnet strength” to attract price?
In ICT logic, the hierarchy is:
Inefficiency Filling > Mitigation of OBs (unless OB created the displacement)
Meaning:
- If the deeper bullish FVG is clean, large, untouched, and in deeper discount,
it has higher probability of being targeted before real expansion.
✅ 2. Probability logic (not numbers, but structure-based odds)
Your POI is likely to hold IF:
You have:
- A strong displacement leg that originated from your POI
- Your POI includes a breaker block or rebalanced wick
- The FVG below is small, already partially filled, or sits below a higher-timeframe range boundary
- Multiple liquidity pools sit above, meaning price doesn’t need to dig deeper
- Larger timeframe (H4/D1) shows no need to go to that deeper imbalance
➡️ In this case, your POI has 60–70% probability of reacting before filling the deeper FVG.
Your POI is likely to be taken out IF:
- The deeper FVG is completely unmitigated
- It sits at equilibrium or deeper discount (below 50%, 62%, 70%, 79% retracement)
- The current pullback is slow, weak, overlapping = “seeking efficiency”
- The POI you’re watching is not the origin of the BOS (weak OB)
- There is liquidity (equal lows, clean swing lows) resting above the deeper FVG, which needs to be taken
➡️ Here the probability shifts strongly (70–80%) that your POI is a reaction only and price dives into the deeper FVG.
✅ 3. The KEY FILTER: Where is the previous dealing range equilibrium?
Take the impulse that caused the BOS:
- Mark its swing low
- Mark its swing high
- Find 50% equilibrium
Now check the 2 levels:
POI location?
If your POI is above 50%, it’s less likely to hold during a deep pullback.
Deep FVG location?
If the bullish FVG is below 50%, 62%, 70%, it is high-probability draw.
In bullish structures, true accumulation happens under equilibrium, not above.
✅ 4. Play the “Liquidity + Inefficiency Stack” Game
Count the confluences:
Above your POI:
- If there is resting liquidity (equal highs, Asian highs, FVGs above)
→ Market wants to attack them first, not reverse deeply.
Below your POI:
- If there is a massive untouched FVG
- And clean lows leading directly to it
→ Market will likely use your POI ONLY to “grab liquidity” then continue lower.
This is why your setup includes:
- sweep ✔️
- BOS ✔️
- but the presence of a clean inefficiency below may indicate
“the sweep and BOS were internal, not the final low.”
🔥 5. The simplest way to tell which one price wants:
Look at the nature of the pullback to your POI:
If pullback is impulsive → trending reaction = POI likely holds.
If pullback is choppy, overlapping, slow → efficiency-seeking = FVG below is the target.
The slow, corrective pullback means:
- market is not ready to move up
- price is simply balancing inefficiencies before the next expansion
So it will likely hit the deeper bullish FVG.
⭐ 6. Practical Trader Answer:
If the deeper FVG is clean, unmitigated, and deeper in discount, the odds are HIGH that price will take out your POI first before going higher.
Your POI may give a reaction (scalp),
but the true long entry is usually at the deeper FVG.
If you want, send a screenshot of the chart.
Alright, I’ve analyzed your chart carefully.
Here’s the precise, structure-based conclusion:
🔍 1. Your POI was internal liquidity — not the true reversal point
From the image:
- The market formed a sweep + BOS, yes.
- But that BOS was internal, not a macro shift.
- Your POI sits above equilibrium, and importantly:
- It sits before a large, clean external downside inefficiency.
This automatically makes your POI:
✔️ valid for reaction scalps
❌ weak for swing positions
Because internal BOS + internal OB = liquidity draw, not a true low.
🔥 2. The bullish FVG below is the real magnet (and price is already respecting it)
From the chart:
- That bullish FVG is clean, wide, untouched
- It lies deep in discount of the entire rally
- There is a clean downside run of lows that lead directly to it
- The current drop into that zone is a fast displacement candle, not a choppy pullback
This is textbook “price is being delivered to the real imbalance.”
Your POI was simply a stop raid on internal liquidity before the real target (FVG).
This is why price ignored your POI cleanly.
🎯 3. What the market is doing right now
Price has:
- Cleared the internal POI
- Filled the FVG’s upper portion
- Tagged the midpoint of the FVG block
Now you must watch if it wants to go deeper into the FVG
or if this is enough to resume bullish structure.
Here’s how to read what comes next:
🔑 4. Two scenarios — and how to tell which one is happening
Scenario A: The FVG holds and becomes the true swing low (higher probability)
Signs to look for:
- A strong M1–M5 displacement away from the FVG
- A BOS on the retracement
- A new OB inside the FVG forming the new POI
If this happens → long from inside the FVG is the best trade.
Scenario B: Price digs deeper (into the wick low)
This happens when:
- Price tests only the top half of the FVG
- But no bullish displacement forms
- Price compresses sideways above the bottom of the FVG
This compression = market preparing to fill the entire imbalance.
If that happens:
Expect price to reach the extreme low at 1.38900 (your green line).
🧠 5. Why your POI failed — clean breakdown
Your POI was likely to fail because:
- It was a weak OB (not origin of displacement).
- There was a clean unmitigated FVG below (stronger magnet).
- Price formed equal lows / clean lows leading to the FVG (liquidity chain).
- Pullback to your POI was slow and corrective, signaling inefficiency-seeking.
- The deeper FVG sat at a better discount level (true buy zones are 62–79%).
All 5 factors were pointing to a deeper draw.
🟢 6. My recommendation right now
DO NOT buy your previous POI again.
It has already been used as liquidity.
Instead:
Wait for a bullish BOS from inside the FVG.
Then:
- Mark the OB that forms inside the FVG
- Enter on its mitigation
- Target the previous high around 1.406–1.410
This becomes the real swing entry.