Why I Was Missing High-Quality Continuation Trades —

And How I Fixed It Using SMA 100 & 200

A structure-based trader’s evolution

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Continuation Trades..

Like many traders who use market structure, premium–discount, MSS/SMS, and HTF alignment, I believed I was trading with discipline and patience.
My rules were clear:

• Buy only in discount in an uptrend
• Sell only in premium in a downtrend
• Avoid mid-range trades
• Trade only after confirmed MSS/SMS

Yet despite following these rules, I kept observing a frustrating pattern:

👉 I was missing some of the cleanest, strongest continuation trades.

This article documents:

1. The problem I faced
2. Why my logic was incomplete
3. How integrating SMA 100 & 200 solved it
4. A real CADJPY 4H case study
5. The refined framework I now use

This is written both for my future self and for mentorship purposes.

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The Core Problem

I trade primarily on the 4H and 1H timeframes, aligning entries with HTF trend and structure.

However, two recurring issues appeared:

Problem 1: Strong Trends Do Not Respect Deep Discount

In strong momentum environments:

• Price often does not retrace to 50% or deep discount
• Continuation trades form in HTF premium
• Waiting for discount means missing the entire leg

Yet my rules forced me to wait.

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Problem 2: Mid-Range Trades Were Automatically Disqualified

I was taught:

“Avoid mid-range trades.”

While this is correct in ranging or weak markets, I later realized:

• In strong trends, mid-range is often the continuation zone
• Liquidity is defended early
• Shallow pullbacks are the norm

By filtering them out, I was filtering out valid continuation trades.

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Why Premium–Discount Alone Was Not Enough

Premium and discount work exceptionally well when:

• The market is balanced
• Trend strength is moderate
• Mean reversion is likely

But in strong trends, premium–discount becomes static, while the market is dynamic.

What I was missing was:

A dynamic measure of trend value, not a fixed one.

This is where SMA 100 and SMA 200 changed everything.

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The Solution: Using SMA 100 & 200 as Dynamic Trend Discount

Professional trend traders do not rely solely on static range levels.
They use moving averages as dynamic value zones.

What SMA 100 & 200 Represent

On HTF (Daily / 4H):

• SMA 100 = primary trend continuation support
• SMA 200 = deeper trend defense level
• Their slope = trend strength
• Their alignment = trend health

When:

• Price is above SMA 100 & 200
• SMA 100 is above SMA 200
• Both are sloping upward

➡️ The trend is strong, and shallow pullbacks are expected.

In this environment:

Structural premium does not mean overvalued.
It often means strong momentum.

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The Key Shift in My Thinking

I stopped asking:

“Is price in discount?”

And started asking:

“Is price discounted relative to trend momentum?”

In strong trends:

• SMA 100 becomes dynamic discount
• SMA 200 becomes deep dynamic discount
• Mid-range setups become continuation zones
• Premium becomes acceptable for buys

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Case Study: CADJPY 4H

This chart perfectly illustrates the issue and the solution.

HTF Context

• Price is clearly above SMA 100 and SMA 200
• Both SMAs are aligned and sloping upward
• Market structure shows HHs and HLs
• Momentum is expanding

This immediately tells us:

Expect shallow pullbacks.
Do not expect deep discount.

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What My Old Rules Would Say

• Price is in HTF premium
• Deep discount is far below
• Entry should be avoided

Result:
👉 Missed trade

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What Actually Happened

Price:

• Pulled back into SMA 100
• Respected a bullish breaker
• Filled a small FVG
• Showed continuation structure

This created a high-probability continuation trade — exactly the move that followed.

Despite being “premium” structurally:

• It was discounted relative to trend
• Institutions defended price early
• The market never returned to deep discount

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The Refined Framework I Now Use

Step 1: Determine Trend Strength (HTF)

On 4H or Daily:

• Is price above SMA 100 & 200?
• Is SMA 100 above SMA 200?
• Are they sloping cleanly?

If yes → strong trend environment

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Step 2: Apply the Correct Entry Logic

Strong Trend

• Accept shallow pullbacks
• Buy near SMA 100
• Use MSS/SMS + FVG + breakers
• Allow mid-range setups
• Ignore structural premium

Weak or Ranging Trend

• Enforce premium–discount strictly
• Avoid mid-range
• Require deep retracements
• Mean reversion logic applies

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Step 3: Lower Timeframe Execution

On 1H or 15m:

• Look for continuation MSS
• Use SMAs as directional bias, not entry triggers
• Refine entries with your existing model

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The Final Lesson

The market does not owe us deep discount.

Strong trends:

• Compress retracements
• Shift value dynamically
• Punish static thinking

By integrating SMA 100 & 200 into my existing structure-based model, I did not abandon discipline — I adapted it to market conditions.

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Conclusion

This evolution allowed me to:

• Stop missing high-quality continuation trades
• Correctly interpret premium in strong trends
• Trade mid-range setups with confidence
• Maintain structure-based discipline without rigidity

Weak trend → static premium–discount
Strong trend → dynamic SMA-based discount

This framework is now a permanent part of my trading and mentorship process.

Read this for more details —>>WHY YOU’RE MISSING TRADES